In Antwort auf
BETTING STRATEGY TO STUDY OPTA
This strategy is based on the statistics of four leading national European football Championships. It is based on the study of Opta, which is one of the world leaders in the analysis of sports statistics.
Graphs on Opta research www.pin-up.bet
Employees of the company estimated statistics of all games of the Championships of Spain, Italy, England and Germany for the period from 2010 to 2019. From such a huge database we have the chart shown in the screenshot.
Each line represents the following:
Home Team Down 1 – home team is losing by one goal
Down 1 Away Team – the away team loses by one goal
Home Team Down 2 – the home team is losing by two goals
Away Team Down 2 – the away team loses by two goals
The X-axis shows the time intervals of the match, and the Y-Axis shows the team's chances to even the score.
From our chart we can see that the average home team, which loses by 30 minutes in one ball, in about 48% of cases compares the score. At the same time, the guest team compares the score only in 36% of cases.
It is much lower to equalize the teams that lose 2 goals. If by the 55th minute the team loses two goals, the home team compares the score of only 10% of games, and the guest team in 7-8% of games.
Since we know what is the probability of comparing the team's score when losing one or two goals, we can build our strategy from this. Just look at the bookmaker's odds and check them against our schedule.
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Let's say that the guest team loses in one ball 55 minutes. The probability that the team will even the score is 30%. This means that if a bookmaker accepts a bet on the market "1X" with a coefficient higher than 3.34, then in theory such a bet will bring income.
It should be borne in mind that if the home team is Osasuna, and the guest Barcelona, the probability of passing such an outcome is much lower if the teams would have changed roles. Therefore, the strategy will work in situations where the initial chances of the teams to win are approximately equal.
It is necessary to pay attention also to what compositions are present on the field. Perhaps the match has already been removed, which distorted the probability of the passage of our market.
This OPTA study can give rise to a wide variety of thoughts. Surely there are certain trends that are almost on the surface and that can generate income. However, in order to detect them, it is necessary to conduct a large-scale study by testing various betting strategies.
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