Jets. In this week six match-up I sought to unders

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2018 Opponent Scouting Report: Jets defense http://www.thecoltsfootballauthentic.com/darius-leonard-jersey-authentic , Jamal Adams isn’t human. OverviewOn October 14, 2018 the Indianapolis Colts will travel to take on the New Yorktand our opponent and get a better idea of how they may attack our new look Colts. Since 2012 the Colts are 1-2 in games against the Jets. The last coming in December of 2016 when our Colts absolutely destroyed the Jets 41-10. Andrew Luck went 22 of 28 with 278 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Colts defense also racked up three interceptions. A lot has changed in the past two years, let’s just hope that the outcome looks the same.Let’s figure out what we can expect in week six.DefenseTodd Bowles has been a coach since the mid-90’s. In his time he has used every conceivable defensive scheme and seen every conceivable offensive concept thrown his way. He has used both 4-3 and 3-4 base fronts and has ultimately chosen the 3-4 to form the identity of his defense. With that said Bowles does borrow from 4-3 principals, choosing to have his defensive linemen play one gap instead of two. I guess what I’m trying to say is that when coaches say they want a defense that is “multiple” they mean they want to have a defense like Todd Bowles. At it’s best Bowles defense is aggressive and attacking and they aren’t only going to rush four. They want to bring a blitz more often than not and that’s evidenced by the fact that they’re currently tied for sixth in the league in sacks coming into the game. They play a lot of man to man coverage which should be expected considering their desire to blitz. In third and long situations the Jets are content to rush three or four and drop the rest into coverage. Let’s get into a few of the things I noticed watching the last two weeks of Jets football:During the Broncos game I noticed early on the Jets were having a tough time maintainingtheir gap responsibilities on runs to the right. Exhibit b:Eventually the Broncos abandoned the run to try and keep pace with a Jets offense that put up 34 points. Had the Broncos continued to run the ball, moving methodically and keeping the Jets offense off the field they may have had a chance in this one. I’m not extremely well versed on all things Denver Broncos but Vance Joseph has to be close to losing his job, right? Andrew Luck is going to have to find Jamal Adams before every snap. He might lineup 15 yards deep, he might lineup as a linebacker, he might lineup at the line of scrimmage and I can’t find much that he’s bad at. Todd Bowles clearly enjoys having a weapon like Adams at his disposal, given how much he moves him around and tries to find ways for him to impact the game. The Jets will blitz a lot of DB’s and it doesn’t really matter who it is, on this play they send J.J. Wilcox which confuses the offensive line and running back and it results in a nice schemed sack. I say it doesn’t matter who they send because as of today J.J. Wilcox is no longer on an NFL roster. I’m going to pretend I don’t know who number 96 is for the Jets but he causes this sack. The thing that jumped out to me about this play is that it’s 3rd and 12 to go. Jamal Adams comes on a late blitz and the “other” safety Marcus Maye actually comes over and cleans up the play coming away with a sack. For those of you keeping score at home, on 3rd and 12 both of the Jets starting safeties were blitzing/playing very near the line of scrimmage.When I went back and watched the Jets vs Jaguars game the biggest difference that jumped out first was the quality of quarterback play. I can’t believe I’m about to type this in an un-ironic way but Blake Bortles played great. On the play above Bortles faced pressure via a DB blitz, and was able to calmly step up in the pocket and it a receiver running a shallow man coverage beating route. It helped that the Jags have a better offensive line than the Broncos so Bortles had a pocket to step into, even still he stayed calm, kept his eyes downfield and hit the open man. I hope Frank Reich and Nick Sirianni rip this play off. This is a 3rd and short play, the Jags send a man in motion and due to man coverage the two receivers routes create a natural, legal, pick that works like a charm. One thing to notice, the Jags sent a tight end out wide and Jamal Adams covered him. Using Eric Ebron as a decoy is a risky move considering he’s one of three offensive players who seem to be able to catch a pass, but by lining him up out wide it could take Jamal Adams out of the play before it even begins. This is the kind of play you run in the final minute of overtime on 4th and 4... too soon?This Jets defense is going to look to attack and Andrew Luck is going to have to play smart, take what the defense gives him, and move well inside the pocket. Losing Matt Slauson could be huge as the big man had been solid in pass protection and helping create a consistent pocket for Andrew Luck all year. I fully expect to see Jamal Adams all over the field, hopefully the Colts have a plan to limit his impact. Defensive Line So the Indianapolis Colts have gone against some really talented defensive lines so far in 2018 and if you would like, I could lie to you and tell you that the Jets d-line is soft. So if you want to hear they’re soft, they’re soft. If that’s what you want to hear, you should stop here and skip ahead to learn more about the Jets linebackers. For everyone else, this line sports Leonard Williams, Henry Anderson and Steve McLendon. We know about Leonard Williams (a former top 10 pick) and Henry Anderson (100% Chris Ballard’s biggest mistake as GM) but most surprisingly for me was how well Steve McLendon is playing from his spot at nose tackle. McLendon is going to keep Ryan Kelly busy all day. It’s going to be strength vs. strength and losing Slauson could be huge. In addition to those three is third round rookie Nathan Shepherd (no relation). Shepherd came out of little known Fort Hayes State and had I not lived in Kansas for the past seven years I would have no idea that school existed. Unfortunately I’ve spent some time in Hayes, Kansas and outside of tumble weed and armadillo’s the only things worth seeing used to include Nathan Shepherd. If you’re from the Hoosier state and you’ve never driven through anywhere that was once considered “the West”, driving from Kansas City to Hayes would be like driving from Evansville to Terre Haute only the hills aren’t really hills and you never see another living person. It’s a trip that only takes two hours but it feels like a lifetime. Nathan Shepherd was in the middle of nowhere this time last year Womens Ryan Grant Jersey , now he plays in New York and the bright lights haven’t changed much, he’s playing lights out for a rookie and looks to be a building block for the Jets future. I hate to do it but Henry Anderson looks really good again:Once again our Colts will face a challenge up front. The rotation of those four players alone might be enough to shake what had looked to be a very solid right side of the offensive line that was developing for the Colts. I don’t want Anthony Castonzo to rush back and re-injure himself, but I really hope he can finally play. I’ve said it before but the team needs him more than ever. LinebackersBrandon Copeland, Darron Lee, Avery Williamson and Jordan Jenkins are the names you’ll need to know. Darron Lee is playing very well and is an absolute stud in coverage. Avery Williamson came to the Jets from the Tennessee Titans. Williamson is better against the run but he has the ability to cover if he remains disciplined. If I were going to target Lee or Williamson, I’m not testing Lee in the pass game at all. With that said both are playing very well so far this season. Jordan Jenkins does a nice job setting the edge for the Jets but he’s not much of a pass rusher. The same could be said about Brandon Copeland, except he’s not actually good at setting the edge. If I were Luck I would find where Copeland was lined up before every called run and make sure the run is going in his direction. While it’s true the Jets are tied for 6th in sacks, they don’t have a pass rusher that scares anyone. They have consistently schemed their sacks and sent defensive backs to generate pressure. With a legitimate pass rush to combine with their solid defensive line and solid inside linebackers and this Jets defense could be scary. Defensive BacksMorris Claiborne, Parry Nickerson, Darryl Roberts are most likely the corner backs you’ll need to know. As of right now it looks like the Jets will be without Trumaine Johnson and Buster Skrine, both down with injury. Without Johnson and Skrine, Claiborne will need to continue his solid play while sixth round rookie Nickerson will need to step up in a big way. Darryl Roberts isn’t great and I feel pretty good about this matchup if T.Y. Hilton can play this Sunday. The safeties, we’ve already talked about but we’ll talk about them again because they deserve it. Jamal Adams is the best safety we’ve faced this far. There doesn’t seem to be anything he can’t do on a football field and if the Colts don’t have a plan to mitigate his impact, it will be felt all day long. Normally you feel good having your tight end block a safety:Marcus Maye is playing just as well as Adams. It shouldn’t be legal to get two safeties this good in the same draft yet the Jets seem to have absolutely killed the first two rounds of the 2017 draft.What to Expect from the Colts OffenseA lot of what we can expect to see will depend on how the offensive line reacts to losing Matt Slauson. If the Colts are able to protect Luck, I feel he might have another big day in the air. I don’t see any way the ground game gets going in this one. Either way we’re going to see a lot of picks and rubs and hopefully crossing routes to beat man to man coverage. Depending on how the defense holds up against Darnold will determine how important winning the time of possession battle will be. If the Colts can control the flow of the game and keep Luck somewhat clean I feel good about the ways they can attack this Jets defense.Stampede Blue Stats: Rigoberto Sanchez is alive and kicking Now that NFL rosters have taken shape and we are less than a week away from real football, the question on most every fan’s mind is “How good is our punter?”Or maybe that’s just me. Typically punters are an afterthought; someone who is needed when the offense fails. Even in modern parlance, “punting” is often an idiom for quitting.Forgotten, overlooked, under-appreciated, the NFL punter is destined for obscurity.Or maybe not. I’ve been intrigued by the recent emphasis on punters in the draft lately.In the 2017 draft, there were 3 punters taken and in 2018 that number increased to 4, including the Texas Bowl MVP.That is the most punters selected in a two year span since 1987(1). Maybe that is random noise or maybe the NFL is starting to change their view of punters. Either way it begs the question of just how much can a good punter help a team? NET YARDSGood punting requires numerous high level skills; short operation time (snap to punt), distance, accuracy, hang time, spin etc. And all of these have to be adapted to conditions and game situation.In terms of direct impact on games, these skills coalesce into a stat called net punt yards, which is simply a punt’s distance past the line of scrimmage less any return yardage. It should be no surprise that this metric is highly impacted by field position.This graph shows all punts since 2000 and plots the avg net yards by line of scrimmage. Net yards are basically flat until a team is about 40 yards from their own goal, at which point the averages decrese as the opponent end zone compresses the field.For comparison, here are Rigoberto Sanchez’s punts against these NFL averages.If that looks really good to you Youth Skai Moore Jersey , it’s because it is.Rigo’s 42.3 net yards per punt (NY/P) ranks 2nd among all punters since 2000(2),Only Johnny Hekker’s 43.1 is better. However, since net yards are clearly dependent on field position, I really can’t compare punters directly without taking that into account.ADJUSTED NET YARDSAlso, there are other impacts not accounted for with net yards.If a punter forces a turnover with a muffed punt, then there is more benefit to that than just 0 return yardage. Conversely, if a punter out-kicks the coverage, a returned TD is worse than just the yards given up.To account for these issues, I have done some mathy stuff, to create an adjusted number. First, I applied bonus/penalty yardage to account for muff-turnovers and return TDs based on commonly used yardage equivalents(3).Then, I derived an equation(4) to calculate the league average net yards for any given field position and applied that to all punts to determine each punter’s expected total net yards. Combining all of that, I can determine the adjusted net yards over average with the following equation: Adj NY over average =(act total net yards + 45 * muff TOs - 20 * return TDs - exp total net yards)Then I simply averaged that by punt and added that amount to the league average NY/P to get my final adjusted metric:Adj NY/P =Adj NY over average / Punts+ nfl NY/PAfter applying all of that math, here are the top 10 punters. Punters since 2000Playerpuntsnet ydsNY/Pnet yds adjexp Net Yardsadj NY/P oaadj NY/PPlayerpuntsnet ydsNY/Pnet yds adjexp Net Yardsadj NY/P oaadj NY/PRigoberto actually overtakes Hekker in adj NY/P and becomes the #1 punter of the century (McAfee finished 27th).Of course, Rigo only has the one season under his belt so let’s not call Canton just yet. And even if the Colts do have the best punter, so what? Can I use these ridiculously esoteric stats to provide something more meaningful like points per game or impact on wins? Well, since I brought it up, yes I can, or at least I can make a reasonable estimate.POINTSThe first step is to use expected points (EP). For those not familiar, the concept of EP is that when a team has the ball, they will usually score next more often than their opponent but that likelihood varies depending upon factors like down, distance and field position.Using historical data, for any situation, I can track all the ‘next points’, whether on a current or subsequent drive, to determine the average points that a team can expect.In other words, EP is the points a team will score, on average, before their opponent, given a specific down http://www.thecoltsfootballauthentic.com/andrew-luck-jersey-authentic , distance and field position.In regards to a punter’s impact, since the drive following a punt is always 1st and 10 (well almost always), then we already know down and distance but field position is still variable. Or is it? The following graph may be one of the most iconic in all of NFL advanced stats. This shows a team’s expected points in first and 10 situations, anywhere on the field. I want to clarify that the blue line is not some stat-nerd formula, it is actual historical data showing the average amount of points a team scores “next” given their starting field position(4). The dotted line is the stat-nerd formula. This demonstrates the incredibly obvious fact that the closer a team is to their own goal line, the fewer points they are likely to score. Notice that inside the 10 yard line, EP is actually negative, meaning the opponent is more likely to score next. Notice also, that the curve is basically linear (not exactly but pretty close). Therefore, the rate of change in EP (slope) is constant everywhere on the field.In other words, given an X yardage differential, the difference in expected points can be determined without knowing anything about field position.Since Adj NY/P is just a yardage differential to NFL averages, I can calculate the EP differential without worrying about opponent field position. Rigo has a 43.0 adj NY/P which is 5.9 yards above average.The EP trendline equation gives a slope of about 0.064 EP per yard, and so Rigo’s adj NY/P converts to 5.9 * 0.064 = 0.38 EP. This means that with every punt, the opponent was expected to score 0.38 fewer points than if the kick had been made by an average punter.And at his average clip of 5.1 punts per game, that comes out to be 1.96 points per game for 2017.That is a lot. WINSI can even take this one step further and convert that impact to wins. Pythagorean Expected Wins uses a team’s season total points for and against to determine how many games they were expected to win. Pythagorean Expected Wins =16 *(PF ^ 2.37)/(PF ^ 2.37 + PA ^ 2.37)In 2017, the Colts scored 263 points and gave up 404, so their Pythagorean wins was 4.2 games. (Pythagorean wins are eerily accurate. )If Rigoberto limited opponents by 1.96 points per game, that means the season total points against would have been 404 + 1.96 * 16 = 435.3 had we had an average punter. The Pythagorean wins from that increased amount is 3.7 wins. So, our punter’s incremental impact for the season was 4.2 - 3.7 = about 0.5 wins. . .by himself! CONCLUSIONIt’s far too soon to tell if 2017 was a trend or a fluke for Rigo. His preseason numbers (40.8 NY/P, 39.7 Adj NY/P) are down a bit from 2017, but then again that’s preseason.And my yardage adjustments are going to be very sensitive to decreased volume, so my points per game and incremental win impacts could easily be over-estimated.That’s not even considering the possibility that the impact of punting field position might not accumulate throughout the game . . .(but it actually does)The bottom line is, a punter can have a big impact on a team’s season. As Colts fans, we should be very happy with Rigo’s performance so far and very optimistic about his impact going forward. FOOTNOTES1) Limiting drafts to first 7 rounds only.2) Minimum of 75 punts3) Based on expected points added equivalents calculated by Brian Burke and Chase Stuart of 45 yards for a turnover and 20 yards for a TD.4) Least squares curve fitting of a cubic where x = yards from own goal:-0.000137*x^3 +0.004803*x^2 + 0.023683*x + 38.64223 5) Data was limited to 1st and 3rd quarters only to minimize the variable of time remaining, although expanding to full game data yields very similar results.

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